Underestimating Risk

- tags ::

Extremely small chances

- Extremely small probabilities are suspicious because they often come from one of two errors:

- Wrongful assumption of independence

- A lack of imagination

- Case of [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark][Sally Clark]] where pediatrician concluded she murdered her children

when they both died of SIDS. Conclusion was there was a 1 in 73 million chance

both kids could die from the same thing.

- Statistically, both children had the same odds, 1 in 8500 in the UK in the

late 90s. While the other number suffered from assumption of Independence.